Tickets for the Walking Phoenix’s virtual concert can be found here: https://walkingphoenixes.veeps.com/stream/schedule
Find Drew’s music at https://irishcowgirlmusic.com/
This week we take a break from discussing mortgages and the homebuyer workshop to bring in the voice of the Mortgage Mom jingle, Drew Young of the Walking Phoenixes to speak about his upcoming benefit virtual concert to raise awareness for those suffering from mesothelioma. He speaks about why raising awareness is important to him and what we can do to help.
As an added bonus, you get to hear a live acoustic version of the Mortgage Mom Radio jingle and a sample of a couple songs we will hear in his upcoming virtual concert!
Mortgage Mom Radio airs weekly focusing on topics that will educate our listeners around mortgage lending. This week we continue the Homebuyers Workshop 2021 series by covering the details of the conventional loan program. And as always, we answer your questions submitted in the comment feeds on YouTube, Facebook, and Twitch!
Don’t forget to keep watching past the hour mark for another segment of Mortgage Mom After Dark!
Mortgage Mom Radio airs weekly focusing on topics that will educate our listeners around mortgage lending. This week we continue the Homebuyers Workshop 2021 series by covering the details of the FHA loan program including down payments, leniency on things like bankruptcies and foreclosures, debt to income ratios, lower rates and more!
And as always, we answer your questions submitted in the comment feeds on YouTube and Facebook!
A Look Into the Markets
This past week, the Federal Reserve held their first meeting of 2021 and shared its thoughts on the economy, inflation, and interest rates.
Below are three important takeaways for the mortgage/housing world and overall economy:
1. “In terms of tapering, it’s just premature.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his press conference, essentially told the world they will continue to purchase $120B worth of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities for the foreseeable future. This means relatively low mortgage rates throughout 2021.
2. “Frankly, we’d welcome higher inflation.”
The Fed said inflation is not a problem now, and it would like to see higher inflation in the future. This gives the Fed cover to continue its asset purchase program described above for at least this year. However, if the Fed gets what it wants, higher inflation, it will be talking about “tapering” bond purchases and even hiking interest rates. Follow consumer inflation readings going forward, as they will be what the Fed watches to determine the need for future rate hikes and less bond buying.
3. “There’s nothing more important to the economy right now than people getting vaccinated.”
All of the stimulus to help revive and stimulate the economy doesn’t do much if businesses can’t open and people are not out and about. The initial vaccination process had issues, but the process has since ramped up around the country, and there are more vaccines on the way.
When you couple all of the stimulus from both the Fed and the government with economies reopening and the American spirit, we should expect strong economic growth later this year. At that time, we may start to see a concern with inflation and a need to “taper” bond purchases, as described above.
Bottom line: The Fed continues to support the housing industry by purchasing bonds, until they get what they want: higher inflation. If you or someone you know would like to talk about the incredible opportunity, please contact me.
Next week is Jobs Week. On Wednesday, we get a look at private job creation within the ADP Report. Then next Friday, we will see the January Jobs Report which includes the official unemployment rate, the number of jobs created or lost, and hourly earnings, or how much people are paid.
Mortgage Mom Radio airs weekly focusing on topics that will educate our listeners around mortgage lending. This week we continue the Homebuyers Workshop 2021 series by covering the details of the VA loan program including requirements and benefits. Afterwards we answer your questions that were left in the comments and stay tuned past the 1 hour mark for some Mortgage Mom After Dark bonus content!
Mortgage Mom Radio airs weekly focusing on topics that will educate our listeners around mortgage lending. This week we continue the Homebuyers Workshop 2021 series by covering the the many benefits along with the responsibilities of homeownership. Afterwards we answer your questions that were left in the comments and stay tuned past the 1 hour mark for bonus content!
A Look Into the Markets
“But if you try sometimes, well, you might find, you get what you need” … You Can’t Always Get What You Want — The Rolling Stones.
“Don’t Fight the Fed”
The Federal Reserve has been very clear on their communications over the past 18 months. They want to see inflation run hotter before even thinking about raising interest rates. And when we say interest rates, the only interest rates the Fed can control are short-term interest rates, by hiking or cutting the Fed Funds Rate. Long-term rates, like mortgages, are driven by the financial markets and inflation expectations. Yes, the Fed is buying bonds to manipulate long-term rates — more on that below.
If inflation is rising, it puts upward pressure on long-term rates, which is exactly what has happened over the last two weeks as inflation expectations rose to the highest level in two years and the 10-year yield spiked to 1.19%, the highest level since last March.
More stimulus is on the way. The incoming Biden administration has put forth a plan to spend trillions of dollars to help revive and stimulate the economy, and this is a major reason why inflation expectations, real asset, and commodity prices are rising, thereby causing the spike to be higher in long-term rates.
The incoming huge stimulus and rising inflation expectations would normally give the Fed reason to stop buying bonds every month. Remember, the Fed is currently purchasing at least $120B in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) each month to artificially help keep long-term rates relatively low. So, with inflation rising, does the Fed stop buying bonds and let market conditions dictate the real pricing of interest rates? Not any time soon.
And while some Fed members were out talking about “tapering” purchases, Fed Chair Powell spoke on Thursday and told the markets they will continue the present bond buying program.
This means we may see a continued uptick in inflation expectations, and the Fed may be pressured to do even more, like buy additional bonds to help keep long-term rates low.
Bottom line: With only a couple weeks into 2021, we are already seeing a shift towards slightly higher rates. If you or someone you know would like to talk about the incredible opportunity, please contact me.
Next week the economic calendar is light, but corporate earnings season will be in full swing. This means we will hear what corporations are thinking about current and future conditions. If stocks move higher on the notion of better days ahead, rates may follow suit. The opposite is true.
Mortgage Mom Radio airs weekly focusing on topics that will educate our listeners around mortgage lending. This week we start off the new year by revisiting our Homebuyer Workshop and go over updates and changes for 2021. We start out with Catching Up With Mom, discussing all the fun and excitement over the holiday weeks. We then move on to cover the first installment of the revised Homebuyer Workshop and explain many of the real estate buzz words that are important to know when getting ready to buy a home. Afterwards we answer your questions that were left in the comments and stay tuned past the 1 hour mark for bonus content!
A Look Into the Markets
For the week of January 11, 2021
“Inflation is when you pay $15 for a $10 haircut you used to get for $5 when you had hair” – Sam Ewing
This past week we watched stocks and rates move higher with the former hitting all-time highs and the 10-year yield crossing above 1.00% for the first time since March. At the same time, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) traded lower, causing home loan rates to tick up just slightly from the lowest levels ever.
What was the main driver for these market moves? Inflation.
The Georgia Senate runoff ended with one party in power of all three branches of government. The market’s knee-jerk reaction is we will see endless stimulus measures, and this has sent inflation expectations to the highest levels in over 2 years!!!
MBS are the bonds which determine mortgage rates, and inflation is one of the main drivers. If inflation rises, rates rise â€“ period!
Fortunately, the daily Fed bond buying has offset some of the selling pressure caused by the rising inflation fears. Looking ahead, if inflation expectations continue to rise, the Fed will be forced to do more to pin down long-term rates, like more bond buying or some sort of yield curve control (YCC).
Millennials made up more than 1/3 of home purchases in 2020. One thing they have no experience with is inflation. The last time we had serious inflation, many of them were not even born. It is an opportunity for mortgage and housing professionals to educate them on the problem above and the screaming opportunity. In an era of higher inflation, you want to own real assets, like real estate which is a wonderful hedge against higher inflation. Moreover, when inflation rises, wages rise. So millennials today can lock in an “artificially” low mortgage rate thanks to the Fed bond buying, and more easily pay down that mortgage over time with ever increasing wages seen in an inflationary environment.
Bottom line: This past week we may be seeing a shift towards slightly higher rates in 2021. If you or someone you know would like to talk about the incredible opportunity, please contact me.
Things have changed. Economic reports will take a bit of a back seat as the never-ending stimulus from the government and Fed will be the big drivers. If reports are good or bad, it may not matter as much because a tidal wave of new stimulus is coming. Consumer inflation has not been a problem up until now, and next week we will get some readings that could be market movers.
Mortgage Mom Radio airs weekly focusing on topics that will educate our listeners around mortgage lending. This week is the last show of 2020 and we bring on Heidi, Carrie, Matthew, and Manny to take a look back at the ups and downs of the 2020 mortgage roller coaster. We share some memories and stories of the difficulties of life in these unprecedented times all while answering your questions in the comments throughout the show.
Thank you for being a listener and enjoy the holidays over the next couple weeks! Stay safe and we’ll see you in 2021!
This Week’s Look Into the Markets:
“The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term,” … December 16, 2020, from the Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement.
This past week Stocks climbed to all-time highs, and rates were able to hold steady near all-time lows. The big news of the week was the Fed Meeting.
It is important to follow Fed activities as they are the most powerful central bank on the planet, and what they say and do can cause seismic shifts in the financial markets. The dual mandate of the Fed is to promote maximum employment and price stability (inflation). At the moment, unemployment is too high and inflation is too low, so the Fed said they are “committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time.” What the Fed didn’t say limited the improvement in both Stocks and rates.
When it came to the Federal Reserve’s Bond-buying program, the financial markets were hoping the Fed would “up” their Bond purchases to help further pin down long-term rates like mortgages, but this didn’t happen. Instead, the Fed said it will “continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month. The Fed will continue this program until substantial further progress has been made toward the current pace to sustain the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals”.
The takeaway — the Fed will continue to purchase at least $120 billion worth of Bonds until we see unemployment sharply lower and inflation solidly higher. This means home loan rates should remain relatively low for a long time.
Bottom line: Even with the Fed Bond-buying, rates have ticked up slightly from the recent all-time lows. With vaccine distribution and more stimulus on the way, it may be difficult to see rates improve much, if at all. If you or someone you know would like to talk about the incredible opportunity, please contact me.
The financial markets may continue to bask in the glow of the Fed’s seemingly never-ending monetary support. As of this writing, we still do not have a fiscal stimulus bill out of Congress, but we expect and hope to see a plan before Christmas. There is an enormous amount of political pressure to get a stimulus bill passed. The Bond market has a holiday-shortened 1:00 p.m. ET close on Thursday, Dec. 24 and full market closure on Christmas, Friday.
Mortgage Mom Radio airs weekly focusing on topics that will educate our listeners around mortgage lending. Crista Hermance from Hermance Law joins us this week to educate us on wills vs trusts, power of attorney, community property vs joint tenants, taking property out of a trust for a refinance, and more. Plus we answer listener questions throughout the show.
In This Issue
“Never hope for it more than you work for it.” — Sonya Teclai
Despite the pandemic hitting the country during the summer, low mortgage rates and evolving housing needs caused the housing market to thrive. We’ll dive into these factors and more, including:
- What to Watch – 2020 is Coming to an End: Right now it’s all about stimulus and vaccine hopes.
- Housing News – Summer 2020 Was a Selling Frenzy: Low mortgage rates and changing home needs fueled the summertime housing boom.
- Home Improvement – Painting Over Textured Materials: When wanting a change to your home’s interior, what is the best way to paint over brick, stone, and wood?
- Q&A – Why Is the Market Thriving During a Pandemic? Learn why people are grabbing homes at record numbers.
Please feel free to forward this newsletter to friends, family or co-workers who may find it helpful.
2020 is Coming to an End
As 2020 comes to an end, with many saying bring on 2021, it’s all about stimulus and vaccine hopes right now. The U.S. financial markets continue to await any headlines from D.C. and there is political pressure on both sides of Congress to get something done.
Mortgage rates were unchanged last week at 2.92% and remain near record lows, but what could the near-term future hold as we head into the new year where rates are concerned? Even with the recent rise in the U.S.10-year yield, home loan rates have continued to improve thanks to the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) asset purchase program.
There is some concern that upward pressure in rates exists, and in addition to the market looking forward at vaccines and more stimulus, there is real asset inflation everywhere: materials, commodities, Stocks, and housing. With the Fed and incoming president looking to add even more stimulus, there could be more asset inflation and potentially some upward pressure on mortgage rates.
The good news is that should rates creep higher, the Fed will likely do even more to pin down long-term rates like measures such as QE and some sort of yield curve control.
Source: Mortgage Market Guide
Summer 2020 Was a Selling Frenzy
Traditionally, September is a slow month for sales as families are already settled into the school year. However, the U.S. housing market saw a tremendous rally this September as low mortgage rates and buyers’ demand for additional space during COVID-19 created the need for a change.
The U.S. Census Bureau/HUD announced in October that new single-family home sales in September 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 959,000, which is 3.5% below the revised August rate of 994,000 but 32.1% higher than September 2019’s estimate of 726,000. Of these new homes sold in September 2020, the median sales price was $326,800, while the average sale price was $405,400.
Some of the shifts in the real state industry are due to low interest rates and changes in demographics. Demand for new housing in some parts of the country has overwhelmed home builders, making supplies an ongoing challenge. Analysts report that the high demand is due to the lack of existing home inventory available for purchase.
Sources: Mansionglobal.com, Housing Wire, deseret.com
Painting Over Textured Materials
When you move into a new-to-you home, the previous homeowners might have had different decorating tastes than you. If you just plunked down a bunch of money for your new home, you might not have room in your budget for a complete remodel. Luckily, with a little elbow grease and a few tools, you can paint over certain materials yourself. Use these tips to prepare these textured surfaces:
Brick: Take a look at the brick surface to determine if you need to repair any small cracks with acrylic caulk. Thoroughly clean the brick with a wire brush and soapy water. Avoid using acidic cleaners, as they will affect the final paint job. Let it dry. Use a roller or paintbrush to apply a latex primer to the brick. Push the paint into any tiny crevices or cracks, and apply a second coat if needed.
Stone: Wash the stone surface with vinegar and a soft-bristled brush. Rinse with fresh water and allow it to dry. Use a spray bottle to spray a light mist of water over the area you want to paint. Stone is porous, and the water will seep into the pores and prevent the paint from soaking in too deeply. Prime the surface with a thick roller, making sure to paint over the mortar lines. After the primer dries, paint the finish coat. You should only need one or two coats, but make sure to get into the nooks and crannies.
Wood: With wood paneling, use 120-grit sandpaper to sand the walls thoroughly and remove any gloss. Take a wet cloth and wipe away any dust. Allow the wall to dry. Use a putty knife and apply a thin layer of drywall joint compound to any grooves. After the compound dries, sand the area, wipe with a cloth, and allow it to dry. Paint the oil-based primer over the wall. Once dry, use a roller or brush to paint the wall with latex paint. Let it dry, and apply another coat if needed.
Sources: Homeguides.sfgate.com, Architectual Digest
Why Is the Market Thriving During a Pandemic?
QUESTION: With the country dealing with the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, why is the housing market thriving?
ANSWER: Even with the deadliest pandemic to hit the country in more than a century, the housing market has thrived due to the lowest mortgage rates ever recorded combined with a shift in how people are using their homes.
The number one reason people sought to purchase homes was due to the low interest rates, but as people are working from home more, they seek bigger homes and care less about commuting times. They see their homes not only as a place to live but an office and, for those with children, a part-time school. People are also seeking homes with pools and home gyms since they’re spending so much time at home.
In a recent interview with HousingWire, Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), said that during the first few months of the pandemic, he projected home sales in 2020 would experience a 15% decline. Once the Federal Reserve announced it would buy Mortgage Bonds to keep the credit afloat during the pandemic, the average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has fallen below 3% in the latest survey from Freddie Mac.
As a result, the NAR announced that existing-home sales jumped nearly 27% annually in October to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 6.85 million units. This was the highest sales pace in 16 years. “The surge in sales in recent months has now offset the spring market losses,” he said. “With news that a COVID-19 vaccine will soon be available, and with mortgage rates projected to hover around 3% in 2021, I expect the market’s growth to continue into 2021.” Yun forecasts existing-home sales to rise by 10% to 6 million in 2021.
Sources: Vanity Fair, Housing Wire
Mortgage Mom Radio airs weekly focusing on topics that will educate our listeners around mortgage lending. Larry Ehrlich joins us this week to discuss upcoming changes to loan limits coming in 2021 and what that means for you and your purchasing options. We also answer your questions submitted in the comments during the live broadcast.
Your weekly Mortgage Market Guide:
1) Stimulus Talks Are Back
The big news this past week was the renewed stimulus talks and the “chance” that we may see a $900 billion stimulus bill included in the government funding package this month.
Up until now, both political parties have been unable to agree on a stimulus package. In addition to the political pressure on both sides to come to an agreement, there are two deadlines Congress has “chances” to get this deal done.
By December 11, Congress must come to an agreement on a funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. As mentioned, we may see a stimulus package included in this funding measure.
If Congress misses this window, they have until December 21 before Congress goes on recess until year-end.
Stocks and rates have been behaving like a deal will get done with both moving higher.
2) Vaccines on the Way
Markets are forward-looking and both Stocks and rates have been rising on hopes and optimism that mass vaccine distribution is just around the corner.
In addition to several vaccines already showing high efficacy rates, there are many more vaccines and therapeutics in the pipeline. Continued good news from vaccines and therapeutics will be a tailwind for Stocks and rates, pushing them higher. The opposite is also true.
3) COVID-19 Cases on the Rise
The rise in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths is a major concern. Even though markets are forward-looking, the uncertainty and threat of more shutdowns is limiting the rise in Stocks and rates. The tug-of-war between vaccine hopes, rising cases, and uncertainty will continue to be a major driver for the next few months. Remember what Fed Chair Powell said back in July, “The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.” This statement has aged well several months later.
Bottom line: Rates remain right at historic lows, per Freddie Mac this week. With a vaccine and more stimulus on the way, it may be difficult to see rates improve much — if at all. If you or someone you know would like to talk about the incredible opportunity, please contact me.
The main market drivers we mentioned above will drive the activity this week and beyond. In addition to tracking these headlines, the markets will have to deal with another round of Treasury supply as a boatload of 3- and 10-year Notes, and 30-year Bonds are sold. With yields increasing to the highest levels in months, it will be interesting to see the “buying appetite” at these auctions. There are also some important inflation readings this week. Tame consumer inflation is a major reason why home loan rates remain low. If inflation rises, rates rise. If disinflation or outright deflation emerges, rates decline.
Mortgage Mom Radio airs weekly focusing on topics that will educate our listeners around mortgage lending. Cameron Robinson of RR Appraisals joins us this week to educate us on the appraisal process, what you need to know about it, and things to look out for when working with appraisers.
Debbie Marcoux is licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act, NMLS ID 237926, also licensed in AZ-0941504, GA-69178, IL-031.0058339, NV-57237, OR, TN-184373, TX, WA-MLO-237926 | Heidi Slagle-Points CA NMLS ID 1666881